Bitcoin's seasonal return stats look far weaker once the wild early years are stripped out — a caution for anyone buying off eye-popping backtest numbers.

• Returns that look like +60% in long-run Bitcoin data fall to roughly 7-8% when only 2018 onward is counted.
• The early years, when Bitcoin was tiny and moved in huge jumps, inflate any average that includes them.
• Using full-history numbers to sell a trade is a common way data gets stretched, and it is worth checking which start date someone used.
• The honest version is still positive: the odds of a green period stay high, just with much smaller gains.

Outlook: Expect modest single-digit seasonal gains rather than the outsized moves older data implies.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Mildly bullish — still favors positive returns, but small ones.
• **Targets:** ~$90,000