A popular sell signal has been giving false alarms, and the fix is simple — neutral news for traders, mildly reassuring for anyone who panicked in April 2025.

• The "death cross" — a short-term average falling below the long-term one — fired twice recently without a real downturn following.
• Both false alarms happened while the 200-day average line was still pointing up, which makes the signal safe to ignore.
• The signal only matters when that long-term line is also sloping down, as it was in January 2022, right before the long bear market.
• Even a real death cross is not a crash warning; it means rallies back toward the 200-day line are selling opportunities.

Outlook: Traders should check the direction of the long-term trend line before acting on the next death cross, rather than selling on the crossover alone.