A Chinese spying case targeting President Lai Ching-te's family in the US is being read as a warning sign for Taiwan ahead of its next elections, and it is bad news for anyone who assumed Beijing's pressure stops at its own borders.

• US law enforcement arrested a 34-year-old woman accused of monitoring Lai's family members in the United States on Beijing's behalf.
• Alexander Gray, a former White House National Security Council chief of staff, says Taiwanese people must take the case seriously because China's harassment of democracies is global, not domestic.
• The clear aim is to shape Taiwan's election outcomes and take the choice away from Taiwanese voters.
• Jacqueline Deal points to a pattern of cases tied to China's united front work at national, provincial, and local levels, with people acting for Beijing in the US without registering as foreign agents.
• The arrest landed as a Washington think tank conference turned to US-Taiwan ties and rising tension in Asia heading toward 2027.

Outlook: Expect more propaganda, disinformation, and open interference aimed at Taiwan over the next two years.