US military moves toward Iran point to a bigger strike coming within weeks, which would be bad news for drivers, bond markets, and anyone hoping the war winds down.

• The carrier Theodore Roosevelt and 2,000 Marines are moving into position, and the Pentagon has been told to draw up attack options.
• The political clock points to early November: losing the midterms would leave Trump politically crippled, giving him reason to escalate.
• The US has little cushion left — the emergency oil reserve is drawn down, so there is no easy way to push gas prices back down.
• Iran holds the stronger hand: it could hit Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq facility, which handles 5% of the world's oil, and send long-term government bond yields above 6%.
• Hitting Iran's refineries or seizing its coastal islands would hand Iran fixed American targets on open ground with no cover.

Outlook: A deal before the midterms looks unlikely, and Iran's incentive is to keep raising the cost on the US economy through early January.