Bitcoin is following its usual post-golden-cross path almost exactly, which is a mildly positive but unexciting sign for holders.

• A golden cross — a bullish chart signal — fired 30 days ago, and Bitcoin is up 3.8% since then.
• Past golden crosses in Bitcoin's history produced a 3.2% gain by this same point, so the current run is right on script.
• Returns tend to pull back toward the historical average, so the small outperformance is likely to fade.
• A brief dip below the average path would be normal rather than a breakdown.

Outlook: Expect Bitcoin to keep roughly tracking its historical golden-cross path, with the current edge narrowing in the near term.