In his National Day address, President Lai Ching-te said he is willing to hold talks with China on the basis of parity and dignity, while reiterating that he will not allow the status quo to be undermined. The overall tone was confident rather than sombre, and leans positive for Taiwan's international image and market confidence.

• The address positioned Taiwan as a rising, responsible country rather than a passive source of risk.
• Taiwan became the world's fourth-largest stock market last month, and its position in high-tech supply chains has become harder to replace — the foundation of confidence behind this new narrative.
• In the face of continued Chinese military and grey-zone pressure, Taiwan's position is to hold the status quo, and it frames this as a test of whether international rules can hold.
• On the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, Taiwan welcomes the use of dialogue between the United States and China to reduce the risk of conflict, but stresses that the history of the Second World War must not be distorted and that the right of the Taiwanese people to survive must not be sacrificed.
• Beijing is depicted as immersed in a self-image of "the East rising and the West declining", while in practice disregarding human rights and international rules.

Outlook: Taiwan is expected to continue using its national strength and supply-chain position as diplomatic leverage, and to strengthen deterrence cooperation with Indo-Pacific democracies around the time of the Trump-Xi meeting.