Trump mocked his own supporters at a rally, and the remark landed as Republicans stare down a brutal midterm map — bad news for the party, good news for Democrats.

• Trump joked that his fans would applaud even "the stupidest things" he said — and they applauded.
• The comment risks insulting voters who backed him for economic reasons, not loyalty, as gas prices, diesel, and inflation bite.
• Republican-leaning pollsters now show Democrats ahead in Texas, and both parties think Kansas is genuinely in play.
• Trump's own primary picks — Ken Paxton in Texas, Lindsey Graham's sister in South Carolina — are forcing the party to spend money in states it should own.
• Polling suggests even an end to the Iran war or cheaper gas would not move votes much now.

Outlook: With three weeks to go, Republicans are betting on a big polling miss, while farm states, Alaska, and Maine all look shaky on cost-of-living anger.