The Iran conflict is squeezing the US economy, pushing inflation and bond yields higher while cornering Trump ahead of his China trip — bad for US markets, homeowners, and rate-cut hopes.

• US inflation jumped to 3.8%, a 3-year high, driven by oil staying above $100 a barrel during the Iran conflict.
• The US is releasing more emergency oil reserves, but as a loan — companies must return 18-24% more barrels later, which could backfire badly if oil prices keep rising.
• Only half of oil companies took the deal because the risk is too high, meaning future reserve releases will likely fail too.
• The stock market is falling, government bond yields are climbing toward 4.5%, and rate cut hopes are gone — markets now see a 35% chance of rate hikes by December.
• Trump heads to China weakened, with US mortgage rates possibly climbing back to 7% and the dollar losing strength.

Outlook: Inflation and interest rates likely stay high through the November midterms, with no quick relief even if a ceasefire happens.