Japan and China cutting US Treasury holdings
Japan and China are pulling back from US government bonds, and this is bad for the US because it removes major buyers just as inflation and deficits are rising.
- Japan's currency is collapsing and inflation is surging, forcing Tokyo to sell US bonds to defend the yen. Japan's holdings dropped about $48 billion in March alone.
- China cut its US bond holdings by another $40 billion and is moving trade with Russia almost entirely off the dollar, into rubles, yuan, and gold.
- The Iran conflict pushed oil and inflation higher worldwide, making US bonds less attractive and pushing the 10-year yield up sharply.
- Japan is trapped: it cannot raise interest rates because its debt is 250% of GDP, but a falling yen makes imported food and energy painfully expensive.
- The US deficit could hit nearly 8% of GDP this year, so investors want higher yields to hold US debt, which keeps pushing bond prices down.
Outlook: Japan and China are likely to keep selling US bonds, which could push US borrowing costs higher and worsen the inflation problem.