The Iran war could cut US auto sales by nearly 1 million vehicles in 2026, which is bad for dealers and carmakers but good for patient buyers willing to wait.

• S&P Global Mobility expects 800,000 to 900,000 fewer cars sold in 2026 and another 500,000 short in 2027.
• The drop is not from supply problems but from buyers pulling back as gas, shipping, and car prices rise.
• Most buyers depend on monthly payments, so higher fuel and insurance costs push cars out of reach.
• Some dealers will try to raise prices like they did during covid, but weak demand will force most to cut prices instead.
• Car prices usually fall harder once the stock market drops and owners feel poorer.

Outlook: Expect dealers to panic and discount heavily by late 2026, making it a buyer's market for anyone who can wait.