Russia is steadily losing allies and bases across the world, weakening its position both in its own backyard and abroad.

• Armenia, once Russia's closest ally in the Caucasus, just elected a pro-Western government despite a Russian pressure campaign of gas threats, trade bans, and disinformation.
• Russia lost its Syrian military bases after Assad fell, cutting off its main naval hub in the Middle East and its supply route into Africa.
• Pro-Western wins in Moldova and Hungary stripped Moscow of key levers — Hungary's Orban, Putin's strongest EU ally, was voted out.
• Russia is buying new friends in Africa (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Libya) with security deals in exchange for gold and uranium, but these allies are far weaker.
• Old ties still bind: Russia still controls Armenia's railways and supplies cheap gas to Armenia and Hungary, so these countries can't push back too hard.

Outlook: Russia keeps shedding allies, but its grip on energy and infrastructure means the Kremlin is betting the pendulum swings back its way.