A market call that the whole US economic plan now hinges on reopening oil shipping through Iran — bad news for stocks and bonds if it falls apart, bullish for gold and silver if it works.

• An Iran-US deal to end the fighting is supposedly being signed Friday, which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring oil prices and inflation back down.
• New Fed chair Kevin Walsh holds his first meeting Wednesday; rates won't change, but his tone on inflation and the bond market is what traders will react to.
• The plan is to cut short-term rates, deregulate banks so they soak up government bonds, and lean on AI to hold prices down — basically money printing in disguise to manage the huge US debt.
• The Iran conflict broke that plan by pushing up oil and short-term rates, and the US emergency oil reserve runs dry in under 80 days, after which gas prices likely spike.
• The bigger bet: we're 6 years into a 15-20 year "supercycle" where hard assets like gold, silver, oil, and Bitcoin beat stocks.

Outlook: Watch Wednesday's Fed language and whether the Iran deal holds — dovish signals and a real deal would lift gold, silver, and risk assets, while a hawkish tone or a collapsed deal points to more pain ahead.