Bad news for people waiting to buy a cheaper home — prices aren't crashing, and affordability keeps getting worse.

• Morgan Stanley says don't expect a housing crash or a "great reset"; home prices are more likely to keep rising than fall.
• Mortgage rates are expected to stay above 6% until the end of 2027, so buying stays expensive.
• Prices won't drop without forced sellers, and today's strong lending standards mean few distressed sales like 2008.
• Instead of prices falling, wealthier buyers are moving to cheaper areas, squeezing out lower-income locals and packing poorer neighborhoods.
• Rising insurance costs from climate risk and a wave of boomers' kids now buying add even more upward pressure on prices.

Outlook: Affordability likely keeps worsening; the question is where you buy, not waiting for prices to come down.