Hawaii is bracing for a tropical storm expected to strengthen and pass close to the islands, and the warning is not to treat it as a near-miss.

• State and county emergency agencies are meeting to prepare, working from long-standing hurricane response plans built with FEMA that already assume a worst-case direct hit.
• The storm, now tropical, is forecast to strengthen to a low Category 1 and skirt just south of the islands — "too close for comfort" even if it stays offshore.
• The bigger worry is complacency: locals are used to storms creeping away, but a near-miss can still dump dangerous rain and flooding.
• Flooding, not hurricanes, is Hawaii's top year-round hazard, and even the tail end of a passing system can bring heavy rain and flash floods.
• Past storms are the reminder — Iselle's fallen albizia trees took months to clear, and Darby's remnants and recent Kona lows caused major flooding, including on the H-1 freeway.

Outlook: Expect heavy rain and flooding risk across the islands even if the storm stays offshore, with the exact path still the key unknown.