A war-driven squeeze on fertilizer and grain shipping is pushing food prices higher worldwide, which is bad for shoppers everywhere and worst for poorer countries.

• The Strait of Hormuz carries a third of the world's nitrogen fertilizer, and the Iran conflict is choking that flow.
• JP Morgan expects global food costs to rise 5% in the first half of 2027, up from US food inflation near 3% now.
• Less fertilizer now means smaller harvests later, so the pain shows up in grocery prices a year down the road.
• Wheat is squeezed on a second front too, with shipping trouble in the Black Sea adding to weak crop conditions.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted that cutting countries off the dollar over Iran would blow up the global financial system, a sign the sanctions threat is a bluff China and Russia will ignore.

Outlook: Expect food prices to keep climbing into next year while the dollar-sanctions threat stays talk rather than action.