Diesel prices could climb toward $10 a gallon by year end as the Iran war drags on, and that is bad news for truckers, small businesses, and the broader economy.

• JPMorgan's oil analysts now say the end of the Iran war is impossible to predict, so they cannot forecast where oil goes next.
• Every economic "red line" the bank assumed Trump would not cross — oil above $100, gas near $5, jumping bond yields — has already been crossed.
• The real squeeze has moved from crude oil to diesel and gasoline, because the U.S. lacks refinery capacity and Russia has banned diesel exports.
• Refiners are earning three to four times their pre-war profit per barrel, a sign the market is desperate for fuel and running down inventories fast.
• California and other high-tax states could see $8 diesel within weeks, which would hit restaurants and hospitality first and trigger layoffs and a recession.

Outlook: Trump keeps promising cheaper gas after the November midterms, but with no end to the war in sight, the market is bracing for a tough winter and higher fuel prices.