Russia's long-running grievances with NATO were dismissed for two decades, and that refusal to listen helped set up today's confrontation — bad news for anyone hoping the Ukraine war has a quick diplomatic off-ramp.

• Russia was kept out of the Western alliance while NATO grew toward its borders, making Moscow the target rather than a partner.
• Washington backed fighters in Chechnya and moved against Serbia in the Balkans, squeezing Russian influence and pipeline plans.
• George W. Bush scrapped the anti-missile treaty and put missile systems in Romania and Poland that use dual-use launchers — they can hold defensive missiles or nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.
• Russia asked to station an inspector on site to verify the launchers stayed defensive and was turned down.
• Putin laid all of this out at the Munich security conference in 2007 and was mocked for it, with John McCain among the loudest critics.

Outlook: The same pattern — warnings brushed off with "what are you going to do about it" — leaves little room for de-escalation in the near term.