Government bond yields have jumped to levels not seen in two decades, and history says something usually breaks when that happens — bad news for borrowers, stocks, and anyone with a job in an AI-adjacent industry.

• The 30-year government bond yield hit its highest level since 2004, and the 10-year — the one that drives mortgage rates — is back near 2001 levels.
• Higher yields feed straight into credit cards, car loans, and home loans, making borrowing more expensive for everyone.
• Research covering the last 50 years found 16 cases of yields rising this fast, and each one was followed by some kind of financial blowup.
• The war is pushing up gas prices and inflation, which forces the Fed to keep rates high; blocked fertilizer shipments mean parts of Asia skipped rice planting, so food shortages are coming.
• AI now drives two-thirds of US growth, so a bubble burst would take the economy down with it — with job losses on top.

Outlook: Expect more pressure on stocks and borrowers as rates stay high, with the war and the AI trade as the two things most likely to snap first.