Why the call that bond yields have peaked could be wrong

- Government bond yields are still the main thing driving stocks right now, and there is a real case that they have not topped out yet — which would be bad for stocks and anyone borrowing money.

• Yields jumped early Wednesday then fell back hard, and the Nasdaq clawed back most of its loss — so far that fits the view that rates are close to a ceiling.
• The other side of the trade: Wall Street technical work says the 30-year is still climbing, just hit its highest level since 2002, and could run at 6%.
• Cash is getting tighter because everyone is borrowing at once — the Treasury plus Elon Musk, Google and Broadcom funding the AI buildout — and overnight lending rates between banks are creeping up.
• The gap between short and long government bond rates is now wide enough to flag shock risk, so expect bigger swings up and down.
• Trump is reportedly weighing strikes on Iran before the midterms, but 13 tanker attacks in the past week and a half have gone unanswered — that reads as public negotiating, not a buildup to war.

Outlook: more big swings ahead as the borrowing wave drains cash, but the AI boom likely keeps getting funded with more debt, and no US missiles are expected before the election.