Global bond markets are cracking under rising inflation from the Iran conflict, and this is bad news for stocks, consumers, and anyone holding long-term debt.

• US government bond yields are back at the levels that forced Trump to pause tariffs earlier this year, with the 10-year above 4.55% and the 30-year pushing 5.1%.
• High borrowing costs are hitting consumers hard — mortgage rates near 7%, rising auto loan defaults, and expensive credit cards are starting to choke spending.
• Gas prices have jumped from under $3 to $4.50 or more in just 70 days, pushing producer inflation toward 6% and killing any chance of rate cuts this year.
• Trump's meeting with Xi produced vague promises but no real deal, and China has little reason to help since cheap energy and a weaker dollar system both work in its favor.
• Japan is the biggest danger — its 30-year bond yield just hit 4% for the first time ever, and more rate hikes could force Japanese money to flow home, unwinding trillions in global trades.

Outlook: Bond yields will likely keep climbing, more rate hikes are now on the table instead of cuts, and a Japanese policy move could trigger a much larger global sell-off in the coming months.