Long-term US government bond rates have jumped to their highest since before the 2008 crash, signaling a slowdown ahead — bad for borrowers, stock investors, and anyone holding older bonds.

• The 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.18%, the highest since July 2007, just before the financial crisis.
• Banks holding older low-rate bonds are sitting on paper losses, and foreign countries like Japan are dumping US bonds to prop up their falling currencies.
• Higher yields mean more expensive mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt, which will slow spending.
• Trump may be trying to trigger a market drop on purpose, because the Fed only cuts rates aggressively when stocks crash.
• Right now retail investors keep buying stocks no matter what, similar to the late 1920s bubble.

Outlook: Expect a slow grind into recession, with a stock market drop likely needed before the Fed cuts rates.