OpenAI may file confidentially to go public as soon as Friday, and the wave of huge AI IPOs this year could be bad for the broader market.

• SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs are expected to raise around $200 billion combined, two to four times the entire 2025 IPO market.
• That money has to come from somewhere, pulling cash out of other stocks and creating big concentration risk.
• None of these companies make money. OpenAI burned $22 billion last year and just cut its spending plan from $1.4 trillion to $600 billion by 2030 while making far less.
• Going public ends the circular funding loop where Nvidia and Amazon invest in OpenAI contingent on it spending the money back on their chips and cloud.
• Cerebrus, which just went public, is the early warning sign. If it drops below 271, it sets up the SpaceX IPO for trouble.
• NASDAQ has loosened its rules to let these companies into index funds faster, opening the door for big retail money to flow in.

Outlook: SpaceX in June and OpenAI in September could pump hard at first, but if insiders dump and the stocks fall, it could slow the whole AI boom and mark a market top in 2026.