Fund managers are dumping cash into stocks at near-record levels, which is a warning sign that the rally may be late-stage, with mixed signals from the economy and Iran.

• Bank of America's survey shows fund managers almost fully invested with cash near a sell-trigger level, calling it "bull capitulation."
• Long semiconductors is the most crowded trade, with 73% of managers piling in.
• Rate cuts are off the table for 2026 and 2027, with markets actually pricing in higher odds of rate hikes if inflation stays sticky.
• Flash PMIs show the economy slowing to about 1% growth, with manufacturing only propped up by companies stockpiling ahead of Middle East war price hikes.
• Iran may be open to dropping war reparations demands in exchange for sanctions relief, which Trump could spin as a win.

Outlook: The rally could keep running on hardware and AI momentum, but slowing services, sticky inflation, and stretched positioning raise the risk of a pullback in coming weeks.