The stock market keeps climbing and looks set to go higher as money rotates from chip stocks into software — good for investors still holding cash, risky because people are piling into debt to chase the rally.

• Margin debt jumped almost double year-over-year as people borrow to buy stocks, which is not sustainable long-term.
• Chip stocks have run hard and options premiums on them are 5x normal, so software stocks like Snowflake, ServiceNow, Palantir, and Microsoft now look like the better deal.
• Goldman raised its S&P 500 target to 8,000 on strong earnings, and expects 2026 earnings up 24%.
• The Iran ceasefire deal, falling volatility, and fading rate-hike fears are all pushing stocks higher.
• The consumer is weakening — savings rates are flat, GDP was revised down, and AI is taking call-center jobs — but businesses, not regular people, are driving this market.

Outlook: Hardware stocks should keep running through the SpaceX IPO, then software takes over and pushes indexes to new highs; oil expected back to $60–70 by next year if the Iran deal holds.