Bad news for anyone whose savings or paychecks are eroding: the Fed may simply change how it measures inflation to make the numbers look better instead of actually fixing the problem.

• Inflation is running hot — about 6% by money-supply growth, 3.8% by the official CPI, all well above the Fed's 2% target.
• New Fed chair Kevin Warsh wants to switch to a "trimmed mean" method that magically shows inflation at 2.3%, close to target.
• Trump pushed out Powell and installed Warsh to get interest rate cuts, but rising gas and energy costs are pushing inflation back up.
• Cutting rates would feed inflation; raising them would hurt the economy and make the government's debt more expensive — a trap with no clean exit.
• Markets see almost no chance of a cut at the June 17 meeting, and actually lean toward higher rates by year-end.

Outlook: Expect rates to stay put in June, with a real chance of hikes later this year — and pressure to redefine inflation rather than tame it.