Food prices are set to jump this summer as a rice shortage works its way from Asian farms to US grocery shelves — bad news for shoppers and people already struggling with bills.

• The price of rice, which feeds half the world, jumped 20% in a month — the biggest jump since 2008.
• The cause traces back to fertilizer: Iran shut several fertilizer plants and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, pushing fertilizer prices in Thailand, Cambodia, and the Philippines up 50%.
• Asian farmers kept planting but used less fertilizer, so harvests will come in smaller than the fields look — and some are skipping a crop entirely.
• This kind of shortage takes 6 to 9 months to reach US stores, meaning the price hit lands in July and August.
• Higher food costs are pushing more people to skip bills, and foreclosures are rising.

Outlook: Expect food prices, especially rice and pasta, to climb sharply into late summer, with the Fed even hinting at higher interest rates to fight inflation.