• The economy today looks a lot like early 2008: inflation is climbing again, oil spiked during the Middle East conflict, and short-term interest rates jumped, just like before the last crash.
• The job market is much weaker than it looks. The latest jobs report badly missed expectations, and past months were revised down sharply. The low unemployment rate is misleading because millions who want work aren't counted.
• Weak jobs matter for stocks because paychecks feed 401(k) money into the market. If people lose jobs and stop investing, that steady buying could flip into selling and drag stocks down.
• Every warning sign of a late-stage credit cycle is flashing: low defaults, plateauing profits, huge AI spending, rising buybacks, sky-high valuations, and big tech now borrowing and selling shares because they've run out of spare cash.
• Today's "subprime" isn't home loans but private credit — the same kind of bad debt that can blow up and trigger a crisis.

Outlook: An economic contraction and recession are the base case, but it will likely look different from the 2008 crash rather than a repeat of it.