Warning signs are stacking up under the surface of the stock market — bad news for anyone holding stocks or relying on pension money, and a reason for buyers to wait.

• Long-term government bond yields have climbed to their highest level since 2007, just before the last crash.
• The average stock is falling even as the S&P 500 barely rises, meaning only a handful of big names are holding the market up.
• Small investors have almost stopped buying — purchases are down about two-thirds from earlier this year.
• Pension funds are the main buyers of those few big stocks, so prices could drop hard once they stop.
• A heavy week of data is coming: consumer confidence, job openings, inflation, GDP, the jobs report, and a stream of Fed speakers.

Outlook: Expect a slow grind lower in stocks and higher interest rates, with the real drop coming when small investors start selling rather than just buying less.