The Global Debt Spiral and the Breaking Bond Market
Government borrowing costs are spiking worldwide and the people lending the money are pushing back, which is bad news for savers, homebuyers, and anyone outside the AI stock boom.
- The world owes $365 trillion, and interest alone now costs the US over a trillion dollars a year.
- Trump has said inflation will pay off the debt, so lenders are demanding higher rates to protect themselves — pushing the 10-year rate to its highest since 2002.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to outbuy the bond market and admitted he could not; British, Japanese, and French rates are climbing too.
- China is the exception: its rates are falling because it spent 20 years borrowing to build real things and lets bad property bets fail instead of bailing them out.
- Strip out AI and chip stocks and the US market is down 5% since August, while mortgage rates above 7% have frozen housing to 1995 levels.
Outlook: With $8 trillion of cheap old debt rolling into expensive new debt within a year, long-term rates look headed higher and the strain on housing and non-AI stocks should get worse.