Hyperscalers Have Entered an AI Capex Death Spiral
The big AI spenders are now burning more cash than they make, and this is bad news for the stock market and the wider economy.
- The giants — Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle — have flipped from big profits to steeply negative free cash flow because of massive AI spending.
- They've run out of their own cash, so they're borrowing heavily: six of them have issued about $244 billion in bonds this year, with over $10 trillion in spending expected in coming years.
- As they flood the market with debt, buyers demand higher interest rates, which forces even more borrowing or selling new shares that would dilute and drag down stock prices.
- AI is a trap because each better model costs far more to run than the last, so this spending keeps rising instead of falling like normal tech.
- The likely endgame is a government bailout — these firms cozy up to Washington to become "too big to fail" before they actually fail.
Outlook: Expect rising borrowing costs and pressure on tech stocks, with the whole AI-propped economy at risk of a bust bigger than the dot-com crash.